LIBBY PROJECT INFLOW FORECAST, 1998 ===================================================== FORECAST DATE 1 Jan ===================================================== FORECAST'S KAF Apr-Aug runoff, Fort Steele 3198 Apr-Aug runoff, Libby Local 2343 ----- Apr-Aug runoff, Libby inflow 5541 Apr-Aug norm, 6376.8, 1961-19 86.9% Apr-Jul runoff 5021 May-Jul runoff 4606 Jan-Jul runoff 5641 Date-Jul runoff 5641 Date-Jul standard error 1069 Date-Jul confidence limit, 1 1759 Date-Jul 95% confidence 3883 Date-Jul 5% confidence 7400 ===================================================================== FLOOD CONTROL, DRAFT BY: 31 Jan 28 Feb 15 Mar required draft, KAF 2292 2494 2561 required elevation, FT 2402.7 2396.5 2394.4 ======================================================================================================== FORECAST COMPONENT SUMMARY FRO WP WP+NS SWE SWE+NSNSSPW INT TOTAL FORT STEELE, B.C., (FS) 1.807 32.86 70.73 36.7 99.4 29.20 inches=(fro(1.309)+wp(0.068)+swe(0.067)+sp(0.167))-5.114 inches 2.365 4.810 6.659 4.876-5.11413.596 inches*235.2=kaf ............................................ 3198 LIBBY LOCAL, (LL) 1.443 24.79 60.53 22.7 73.0 25.62 inches=(fro(0.921)+wp(0.086)+swe(0.046)+sp(0.152))-4.183 inches 1.329 5.206 3.356 3.894-4.183 9.602 inches*244.0=kaf ............................................ 2343 TERM DEFINITION fall runoff is FRO winter precip is WP normal subsequent is NS snow water equivelant is SWE normal subsequent spring precip(weighted) is NSSPW equation constant, or, y-INTERCEPT is INT ====================================================================== OBSERVED DATA, usage, FS=Fort Steele, LL=Libby Local WINTER PRECIP(WP), inches Oct Nov Dec Banff FS 0.50 0.19 1.27 Brisco FS 1.23 0.67 0.33 Fernie LL 6.53 1.56 1.70 Kaslo FS 4.89 2.02 0.94 Rogers Pass FS 7.30 6.35 7.17 Fortine LL 1.13 0.60 0.41 Libby RS LL 2.39 1.28 0.85 Bonners Ferry LL 2.77 0.89 0.82 Polebridge LL 2.11 0.90 0.85 SNOW WATER EQUILVENT(SWE), inches 31 DEC Glacier FS 12.6 Kicking Horse FS 4.5 Kimberly LL 0.6 Marble Canyon FS 5.0 Mirror Lake FS 3.7 Morrissey Ridge FS & LL*.5 7.8 New Fernie FS & LL 2.0 Sullivan Mine FS & LL 1.1 Red Mtn. LL 5.3 Weisel Divide LL 9.7 FALL RUNOFF(FRO), kaf Oct Nov SUM Fort Steele f=235.2 283 142 425 Libby local f=244.0 199 153 352 f=, is to convert from basin inches to acre feet(x), or acre feet to basin inches(/). LIBBY INFLOW, kaf Oct Nov Dec 482 295 232 ======================================================================