LIBBY PROJECT INFLOW FORECAST, KAF 1998 ======================================================== FORECAST DATE 1 Jan 1 Feb ======================================================== FORECAST'S KAF Apr-Aug runoff, Fort Steele 3198 3311 Apr-Aug runoff, Libby Local 2343 2328 ----- ----- Apr-Aug runoff, Libby inflow 5541 5639 Apr-Aug norm, 6376.8, 1961-19 86.9% 88.4% Apr-Jul runoff 5021 5111 May-Jul runoff 4606 4688 Jan-Jul runoff 5641 5741 Date-Jul runoff 5641 5531 Date-Jul standard error 1069 731 Date-Jul confidence limit, 1 1759 1202 Date-Jul 95% confidence 3883 4329 Date-Jul 5% confidence 7400 6734 ================================================================= FLOOD CONTROL, DRAFT BY: 31 Jan 28 Feb 15 Mar required draft, KAF 2292 2624 2709 required elevation, FT 2402.7 2392.3 2389.5 ======================================================================================================== FORECAST COMPONENT SUMMARY FRO WP WP+NS SWE SWE+N NSSPW INT TOTAL FORT STEELE, B.C., (FS) 1.807 49.01 70.18 68.5 107.1 29.20 inches=(fro(1.309)+wp(0.068)+swe(0.067)+sp(0.167))-5.114 inches 2.365 4.772 7.178 4.876-5.11414.078 inches*235.2=kaf ............................................ 3311 LIBBY LOCAL, (LL) 1.443 35.30 55.18 50.2 81.7 25.62 inches=(fro(0.921)+wp(0.086)+swe(0.046)+sp(0.152))-4.183 inches 1.329 4.745 3.756 3.894-4.183 9.542 inches*244.0=kaf ............................................ 2328 TERM DEFINITION fall runoff is FRO winter precip is WP normal subsequent is NS snow water equivelant is SWE normal subsequent spring precip(weighted) is NSSPW equation constant, or, y-INTERCEPT is INT ======================================================================== OBSERVED DATA, usage, FS=Fort Steele, LL=Libby Local WINTER PRECIP(WP), inches Oct Nov Dec Jan Banff FS 0.50 0.19 1.27 0.61 Brisco FS 1.23 0.67 0.33 2.68 Fernie LL 6.53 1.56 1.70 3.70 Kaslo FS 4.89 2.02 0.94 4.83 Rogers Pass FS 7.30 6.35 7.17 8.03 Fortine LL 1.13 0.60 0.41 1.13 Libby RS LL 2.39 1.28 0.85 1.30 Bonners Ferry LL 2.77 0.89 0.82 2.11 Polebridge LL 2.11 0.90 0.85 2.27 SNOW WATER EQUILVENT(SWE), inches 31 DEC 31 JAN Glacier FS 12.6 18.1 Kicking Horse FS 4.5 5.8 Kimberly LL 0.6 1.4 Marble Canyon FS 5.0 8.5 Mirror Lake FS 3.7 6.3 Morrissey Ridge FS & LL*.5 7.8 16.4 New Fernie FS & LL 2.0 7.5 Sullivan Mine FS & LL 1.1 5.9 Red Mtn. LL 5.3 8.0 Weisel Divide LL 9.7 19.2 FALL RUNOFF(FRO), kaf Oct Nov SUM Fort Steele f=235.2 283 142 425 Libby local f=244.0 199 153 352 f=, is to convert from basin inches to acre feet(x), or acre feet to basin inches(/). LIBBY INFLOW, kaf Oct Nov Dec Jan 482 295 232 210 ========================================================================