LIBBY PROJECT INFLOW FORECAST, KAF 1998 ================================================================================== FORECAST DATE 1 Jan 1 Feb 1 Mar 1 Apr 1 May ================================================================================== FORECAST'S KAF Apr-Aug runoff, Fort Steele 3219 3332 3023 3089 3000 Apr-Aug runoff, Libby Local 2336 2333 2030 2100 2057 ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- Apr-Aug runoff, Libby inflow 5555 5666 5052 5189 5056 Apr-Aug norm, 6376.8, 1961-19 87.1% 88.8% 79.2% 81.4% 79.3% Apr-Jul runoff 5034 5134 4579 4702 4582 May-Jul runoff 4618 4710 4200 4313 4103 Jan-Jul runoff 5655 5765 5208 5346 5226 Date-Jul runoff 5655 5555 4807 4713 4103 Date-Jul standard error 1759 1202 1096 1058 941 Date-Jul confidence limit, 1 3896 4352 3711 3655 3161 Date-Jul 5% confidence 7413 6757 5902 5771 5042 ================================================================================== FLOOD CONTROL, DRAFT BY: 31 Jan 28 Feb 15 Mar 31 Mar 30 Apr lookback required draft, KAF 2303 2658 1918 2096 1923 required elevation, FT 2402.4 2391.2 2413.2 2408.4 2413.1 ========================================================================================================== FORECAST COMPONENT SUMMARY FRO WP SWE SP SP+NS INT TOTAL FORT STEELE, B.C., (FS) 1.807 64.67 98.6 4.41 26.94 inches=(fro(1.309)+wp(0.068)+swe(0.067)+sp(0.167))-5.114 inches 2.365 4.398 6.606 4.499-5.11412.754 inches*235.2=kaf ............................................... 3000 LIBBY LOCAL, (LL) 1.443 48.34 74.15 4.66 24.44 inches=(fro(0.921)+wp(0.086)+swe(0.046)+sp(0.152))-4.183 inches 1.329 4.157 3.411 3.715-4.183 8.429 inches*244.0=kaf ............................................... 2057 TERM DEFINITION fall runoff is FRO winter precip is WP normal subsequent is NS snow water equivelant is SWE spring precip(weighted) is SP equation constant, or, y-INTERCEPT is INT ========================================================================================== OBSERVED DATA, usage, FS=Fort Steele, LL=Libby Local WINTER PRECIP(WP), inches Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Banff FS 0.50 0.19 1.27 0.61 0.13 1.33 Brisco FS 1.02 1.06 0.67 2.68 0.12 1.91 Fernie LL 6.53 1.56 1.70 3.70 1.40 5.04 Kaslo FS 4.89 2.02 1.74 4.83 1.62 2.73 Rogers Pass FS 7.30 6.35 7.17 8.03 2.74 3.76 Fortine LL 1.13 0.60 0.41 0.74 0.10 1.34 Libby RS LL 2.39 1.28 0.54 2.24 0.47 0.92 Bonners Ferry LL 2.77 0.89 0.82 2.11 1.30 0.79 Polebridge LL 2.11 0.90 0.85 2.27 0.10 1.34 SNOW WATER EQUILVENT(SWE), inches 31 DEC 31 JAN 28 FEB 31 MAR Glacier FS 12.6 18.1 20.7 23.4 Kicking Horse FS 4.5 5.8 9.1 10.5 Kimberly LL 0.6 1.4 2.1 3.0 Marble Canyon FS 5.0 8.5 9.8 10.9 Mirror Lake FS 3.7 6.3 7.9 9.7 Morrissey Ridge FS & LL*.5 7.8 16.4 18.6 26.1 New Fernie FS & LL 2.0 7.5 8.4 9.4 Sullivan Mine FS & LL 1.1 5.9 6.5 8.6 Red Mtn. LL 5.3 8.0 9.8 13.7 Weisel Divide LL 9.7 19.2 22.2 26.4 FALL RUNOFF(FRO), kaf Oct Nov SUM Fort Steele f=235.2 283 142 425 Libby local f=244.0 199 153 352 f=, is to convert from basin inches to acre feet(x), or acre feet to basin inches(/). LIBBY INFLOW, kaf Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr 482 295 232 210 191 232 491 SPRING PRECIP(SP), inches Apr Brisco FS 0.65 Creston FS 1.04 Kaslo FS & LL 1.36 Wasa FS 0.42 Fortine LL 1.01 Porthill FS & LL 0.94 Whitefish LL 1.35 ==========================================================================================