LIBBY PROJECT INFLOW FORECAST, KAF 1999 ===================================================== FORECAST DATE 1 Jan ===================================================== FORECAST'S KAF Apr-Aug runoff, Fort Steele 3697 Apr-Aug runoff, Libby Local 2923 ----- Apr-Aug runoff, Libby inflow 6620 Apr-Aug norm, 6376.8, 1961-1990 103.8% Apr-Jul runoff 5999 May-Jul runoff 5503 Jan-Jul runoff 6622 Date-Jul runoff 6622 Date-Jul standard error 1069 Date-Jul confidence limit, 1.645 1759 Date-Jul 95% confidence 4863 Date-Jul 5% confidence 8380 ===================================================================== FLOOD CONTROL, DRAFT BY: 31 Jan 28 Feb 15 Mar required draft, KAF 3102 3866 4117 required elevation, FT 2375.7 2345.4 2334.2 ======================================================================================================== FORECAST COMPONENT SUMMARY FRO WP WP+NS SWE SWE+NSNSSPW INT TOTAL FORT STEELE, B.C., (FS) 1.076 45.86 83.73 69.5 132.2 29.20 inches=(fro(1.309)+wp(0.068)+swe(0.067)+sp(0.167))-5.114 inches 1.408 5.694 8.855 4.876 -5.114 15.719 inches*235.2=kaf ............................................. 3697 LIBBY LOCAL, (LL) 0.934 41.08 76.82 54.1 104.4 25.62 inches=(fro(0.921)+wp(0.086)+swe(0.046)+sp(0.152))-4.183 inches 0.861 6.607 4.800 3.894 -4.183 11.979 inches*244.0=kaf ............................................. 2923 TERM DEFINITION fall runoff is FRO winter precip is WP normal subsequent is NS snow water equivelant is SWE normal subsequent spring precip(weighted) is NSSPW equation constant, or, y-INTERCEPT is INT ====================================================================== OBSERVED DATA, usage, FS=Fort Steele, LL=Libby Local WINTER PRECIP(WP), inches Oct Nov Dec Banff FS 1.79 1.19 1.30 Brisco FS 1.69 1.61 2.24 Fernie LL 1.77 9.09 4.42 Kaslo FS 2.56 5.83 6.77 Rogers Pass FS 2.54 9.17 9.17 Fortine LL 0.59 2.92 1.12 Libby RS LL 0.90 3.62 3.16 Bonners Ferry LL 0.77 2.70 2.59 Polebridge LL 0.91 3.70 2.82 SNOW WATER EQUILVENT(SWE), inches 31 DEC Glacier FS 15.4 Kicking Horse FS 9.0 Kimberly LL 3.9 Marble Canyon FS 7.5 Mirror Lake FS 7.4 Morrissey Ridge FS & LL*.5 17.7 New Fernie FS & LL 5.7 Sullivan Mine FS & LL 6.8 Red Mtn. LL 10.2 Weisel Divide LL 18.6 FALL RUNOFF(FRO), kaf Oct Nov SUM Fort Steele f=235.2 138 115 253 Libby local f=244.0 112 116 228 f=, is to convert from basin inches to acre feet(x), or acre feet to basin inches(/). LIBBY INFLOW, kaf Oct Nov Dec 250 231 216 ======================================================================