LIBBY PROJECT INFLOW FORECAST, KAF 1999 ======================================================== FORECAST DATE 1 Jan 1 Feb ======================================================== FORECAST'S KAF Apr-Aug runoff, Fort Steele 3697 3984 Apr-Aug runoff, Libby Local 2936 2931 ----- ----- Apr-Aug runoff, Libby inflow 6633 6915 Apr-Aug norm, 6376.8, 1961-19 104.0% 108.4% Apr-Jul runoff 6011 6267 May-Jul runoff 5514 5748 Jan-Jul runoff 6634 6941 Date-Jul runoff 6634 6690 Date-Jul standard error 1069 731 Date-Jul confidence limit, 1 1759 1202 Date-Jul 95% confidence 4875 5487 Date-Jul 5% confidence 8392 7892 ================================================================= FLOOD CONTROL, DRAFT BY: 31 Jan 28 Feb 15 Mar required draft, KAF 3109 4125 4407 required elevation, FT 2375.5 2333.8 2320.1 ======================================================================================================== FORECAST COMPONENT SUMMARY FRO WP WP+NS SWE SWE+N NSSPW INT TOTAL FORT STEELE, B.C., (FS) 1.076 66.13 87.30108.1 146.7 29.20 inches=(fro(1.309)+wp(0.068)+swe(0.067)+sp(0.167))-5.114 inches 1.408 5.936 9.832 4.876-5.11416.938 inches*235.2=kaf ............................................ 3984 LIBBY LOCAL, (LL) 0.934 52.76 72.64 81.5 112.9 25.62 inches=(fro(0.921)+wp(0.086)+swe(0.046)+sp(0.152))-4.183 inches 0.861 6.247 5.195 3.894-4.18312.013 inches*244.0=kaf ............................................ 2931 TERM DEFINITION fall runoff is FRO winter precip is WP normal subsequent is NS snow water equivelant is SWE normal subsequent spring precip(weighted) is NSSPW equation constant, or, y-INTERCEPT is INT ======================================================================== OBSERVED DATA, usage, FS=Fort Steele, LL=Libby Local WINTER PRECIP(WP), inches Oct Nov Dec Jan Banff FS 1.79 1.19 1.30 0.85 Brisco FS 1.69 1.61 2.24 0.94 Fernie LL 1.77 9.09 4.25 5.79 Kaslo FS 2.56 5.83 6.77 5.29 Rogers Pass FS 2.54 9.17 9.1713.19 Fortine LL 0.59 2.92 1.12 1.18 Libby RS LL 0.90 3.62 2.94 1.71 Bonners Ferry LL 0.77 2.70 2.59 0.75 Polebridge LL 0.91 3.70 3.85 1.61 SNOW WATER EQUILVENT(SWE), inches 31 DEC 31 JAN Glacier FS 15.4 24.4 Kicking Horse FS 9.0 14.0 Kimberly LL 3.9 3.9 Marble Canyon FS 7.5 13.0 Mirror Lake FS 7.4 10.7 Morrissey Ridge FS & LL*.5 17.7 24.1 New Fernie FS & LL 5.7 10.8 Sullivan Mine FS & LL 6.8 11.1 Red Mtn. LL 10.2 14.1 Weisel Divide LL 18.6 29.5 FALL RUNOFF(FRO), kaf Oct Nov SUM Fort Steele f=235.2 138 115 253 Libby local f=244.0 112 116 228 f=, is to convert from basin inches to acre feet(x), or acre feet to basin inches(/). LIBBY INFLOW, kaf Oct Nov Dec Jan 250 231 216 251 ========================================================================